6G mobile networks could add $1.24 trillion to the global economy by 2040, but a shortage of available spectrum risks wiping out close to half of that gain, according to a new report from the GSMA, which represents mobile operators worldwide.
Key Takeaways
- 6G could add $1.24 trillion to global GDP by 2040, equivalent to a 0.7 per cent lift, the GSMA says.
- Insufficient spectrum could put $520 billion, or 42 per cent, of that economic value at risk.
- Manufacturing and financial services stand to gain the most, with mid-band spectrum carrying 70 per cent of 6G’s economic contribution.
The findings come from Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G, published on 5 November. The report credits 6G’s expected gains to advances in artificial intelligence, industrial automation, immersive digital services and always-on connectivity — capabilities that go beyond what 5G alone can support.
Those gains depend on governments freeing up enough spectrum in time for 6G rollout. With the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27) approaching, the GSMA is pressing policymakers to settle spectrum allocations now rather than later.
“6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy. The next generation of mobile technology will help power AI, transform industries and unlock new levels of productivity across the economy. But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realise the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead,” said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA.
Manufacturing and finance lead the gains
Manufacturing and financial services are set to capture the largest share of 6G’s economic contribution in 2040, at 20 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. Construction follows at 13 per cent, with information and communications technology at 12 per cent.
Unlike earlier mobile generations, 6G is designed to be AI-native — able to sense its environment and support real-time decision-making, not just carry data. The GSMA points to five areas driving the additional value: connectivity for AI systems, industrial automation and robotics, enhanced broadband and fixed wireless access, integrated sensing, and non-terrestrial networks that extend coverage to underserved areas.
Regionally, Greater China stands to gain the most additional economic value by 2040 at $390 billion, ahead of North America at $290 billion and Europe at $225 billion. How quickly each region adopts 6G, and how ready its infrastructure is, will decide how much of that potential gets realised.
Spectrum shortages threaten nearly half the upside
Mid-band spectrum alone accounts for 70 per cent of 6G’s projected economic contribution, with low-band spectrum contributing a further 25 per cent, mainly for rural and indoor coverage. Constrained access to these bands could cut 6G’s economic contribution by as much as $520 billion in 2040 — on top of any losses to existing mobile networks that share the same spectrum.
What governments need to do before 2030
The GSMA is calling on governments to take three steps: release at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum by around 2030, including upper 6 GHz capacity; make the 600 MHz band available to strengthen rural and indoor coverage; and set out clear national spectrum roadmaps so operators can plan investment with certainty.
“Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen,” Giusti said.
